High Tin Ingot Spot Premiums, Downstream "Small Orders and Rigid Demand" Restrict Transaction Volumes [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

At noon on August 26, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 269,400 yuan/mt, up 0.34% from the previous day, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 268,330-270,350 yuan/mt. Trading was sluggish, and open interest slightly decreased, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. LME tin opened at $33,800/mt (down 0.13% from the previous day), oscillating around $33,900/mt during the Asian session, with significant resistance at $34,000/mt.

In the spot market, high prices suppressed transactions, with downstream buyers mainly restocking in small quantities as needed. Traders' refusal to budge on prices and end-users' wait-and-see attitude created a tug of war.

Fed Chairman Powell delivered a dovish signal at the global central bank conference, emphasizing that "risks in the job market may require an interest rate cut in September," boosting sentiment for risk assets. However, the US's sudden policy of imposing additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals pushed the US dollar index to 98.4 (up 0.7%), suppressing dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals. Domestic policies supporting the bottom (additional consumer subsidies) and investments in computing power infrastructure (MIIT emphasized breakthroughs in GPU chips) constitute potential positives, but it will take time for these to translate into actual demand.

In the short term, SHFE tin is likely to continue its sideways movement within the 265,000-275,000 yuan/mt range. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the key resistance level at $34,000, and if broken, it could test $34,500. The afternoon focus will shift to LME inventory changes (previous value 1,785 mt) and domestic spot premiums/discounts. If there is a rebound in downstream restocking willingness, it may lead to a slight upward probe in futures. In the medium term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the contest between mine-side disruptions and the pace of demand recovery continues to dominate. Investors are advised to cautiously observe and await clearer signals on macro policies and the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar.